Trade flows of rtas signed between developing economies

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Abstract

This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China.

Contents

Abstract iii

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List of Figures vi

List of Tables vi

List of Formulas vi

1. Introduction viii

1.1Background viii

1.2 Problem definition x

1.3 Research Objective x

1.3.1 Major research question x

1.3.2 Minor research question xi

1.4 Theoretical Framework xi

1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi

1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii

1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii

1.4.4 Research Limitations xii

1.5 Thesis Structure xiii

2. Literature Review xiii

2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv

2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv

2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii

2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii

2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx

3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi

3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi

3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi

3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii

3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii

3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii

3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii

3.2 Research Methodology xxvii

3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii

3.2.2 Data Collection xxx

4. Findings and Results xxxi

4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi

5. Conclusions xxxiii

6. Appendix xxxiv

7. References xxxvii

List of Figures

Figure 1 – Trade Creation………………………………………………………………….

Figure 2 – Trade Diversion

Figure 3 – Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation

Figure 4 – Multiple regression hyperplane

List of Tables

Table 1 – Dummy Variable Interpretation…………………………………………………..

Table 2 – RTAs assessed and Members

Table 3 – Regression results of individual years

Table 4 – Regression results of PCS

List of Formulas

Formula 1 – Gravity model equation………………………………………………………

Formula 2 – Log linear form of the gravity model…………………………………………

Formula 3 – Current gravity specifications………………………………………………..

Abbreviations

CGE: Computable General Equilibrium

COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

FTA: Free Trade Agreement

GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

MERCOSUR: Mercado Común del Sur – RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay

NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement

OLS: Ordinary Least Squares

PCS: Pooled Cross-Section

PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement

RIA: Regional Integration Agreement

RTA: Regional Trade Agreement

SICA: Sistema de Integración Centro Americana – RTA between Honduras,

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