Modelling And Analysis Of Climate Change

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1. Executive Summary

The burning topic throughout the world is “Climate Change�. The close linkage between economic growth of the country and Greenhouse gas emission is indeed a serious debate. Development in industrial sectors will naturally increase GDP accompanied by emissions. However increase in GDP will pay way for higher standard of lifestyle and more income which results in increased consumption of energy and hence more emissions. The alarming global warming and the pressures of international treaties to reduce the emissions have triggered to analyse the relationship between economic growth (GDP) and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission.

The relationship between GDP and Co2 emission for different countries are studied using regression-correlation model for a particular timeframe and in order to gain further insight on the emission curve, time series analysis is studied for few developed and developing countries. The data for analysis are taken from UN database and World data bank database. The relationship between GDP and Co2 emission could be drawn after analysing the linear regression equation and correlation factors of different countries.

2. Introduction

Climate Change is a serious and long pending issue which seeks continuous solutions. The earth’s climate change is mainly due to greenhouse gases triggered by human activities. Carbon di Oxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas is emitted by various means. Industrialization and technology have negatively impacted the environment by emitting the GHGs and discharging other pollutants. Fuel combustion accounts for the high amount of CO2 emission and there exists a strong correlation between total fuel emissions and CO2 emissions. Transportation and energy industries emit more percentage of CO2 emissions. Positive correlation exists between CO2 emission and total energy consumption. Hence the inferred fact is countries that emit more CO2 are those that consume more energy. As seen from the below graph, emission varies

Figure 1: Change in GDP and CO2 emissions for 25 countries.

Source: Change in GDP and CO2 Emissions, Top 25 Emitting Countries, 1992 to 2006

Available online:

3. Literature Review

Various Climate models states that doubling of Green house gases (GHGs) will increase the temperature by 2-5 degree celcius in global mean temperatures. As per forecast, this level may reach by the year 2030 – 2060. There may arise a situation wherein the effect of climate change may cause further amplification by releasing other GHGs. The recent level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is equivalent to 430 parts per million (ppm) CO2 compared with only 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution. By 2035, the level of CO2 emission could be reached 550ppm (CO2e) which implies a global increase in temperature of 2 degree Celsius. The below figure depicts the increase in GHGs emiited due to various activities. Increase in CO2, Kyoto gases (include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs, HFCs and SF6) and Clorofluro Carbons(CFCs) are depicted.

Figure 2: Emisiion of Greenhouse gases over time period 1850 – 1990.

Source: Stern review on economies of Climate Change.

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