Chinese New Year is an important celebration that necessary been celebrated by all the Chinese in the world. That is more than 1.3 million Chinese around the world (World Popolation 2012, 2013), therefore, Chinese New Year already be treat as a important festival that necessary be celebrated and be include as a public holiday for most of the Asia country such as Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea (Chinese New Year, 2013). Stock market will be always changes according to the variation of environment such as different holiday on different country will affect the stock price differently.
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Chinese New Year is one of the holidays that will affect the stock market in most of the Asia country such as Malaysia. The stock market exchange will become anomalies on before, during and after the Chinese New Year period, which is known as Chinese New Year effect (Chinese Lunar New Year: Year of the Snake, 2013). Chinese New Year effect that occur in banking industry, may because by the different demand and purchasing on the market in before, during, and after Chinese New Year. For example, before the Chinese New Year is coming, most of the company will award yearend bonus to their employees. Besides, preparation before Chinese New Year such as buying some traditional New Year decoration, food, drink, clothing, shoes, and accessory. That will relatively increase the demand and purchase ability in a period of time (Chinese New Year, 2013). In this research, two stocks in same industry will be selected and the data period for both stock price and market index shall starts from 1st January 2007 until 2nd February 2012. Those will using the up to date data to observe the relationship between Chinese New Year and stock returns. Literature Review
January effect or called turn-of-the-year effect is a good example of seasonal abnormal in security markets around the world. During turn-of-the-year, certain types of securities produce positive abnormal returns. Stock prices tend to rise during the starting of the last trading day in December and ending on the fifth trading day of January. Rozeff and Kinney (1976) found a seasonal pattern in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) index over the period of 1904 to 1974. The average monthly return in January was about 3.5 percent, while the average return in other months was just 0.5 percent. The average return in January appeared to be seven times higher than returns for other months (Lim, Ng, & Chong, 2010). Keim (1983) found that the abnormal return is related to the stock market capitalization. As such, small capitalization stocks outperform large capitalization stocks in January, as small capitalization stocks post a higher abnormal return than large capitalization stocks. Reiganum (1983) confirmed that the January effect is a small capitalization phenomenon (Su,
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